Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndepend. Rivadavia to win ✓53% · @1.84
Double chanceIndepend. Rivadavia or draw ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.43
Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia preview and prediction
The match
Independ. Rivadavia travel to Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 21 May (23:00 WAT) to face Deportivo La Guaira. Deportivo La Guaira are 4th with 3 points from 6 games, while Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st on 16 points. A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo La Guaira's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with UCV 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Independ. Rivadavia's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Union Santa Fe 1–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Independ. Rivadavia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 April 2026, finished Independ. Rivadavia 4–1 Deportivo La Guaira.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.4 for Independ. Rivadavia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Safer route: Independ. Rivadavia or draw (77%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independ. Rivadavia or draw – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Independ. Rivadavia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo La Guaira23%fair 4.28 · @4.50
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.30
Independ. Rivadavia53%fair 1.90 · @1.84
2.58Expected goals
1.18Deportivo La Guaira xG
1.40Independ. Rivadavia xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Deportivo La Guaira 1.2 – 1.4 Independ. Rivadavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our pick is Independ. Rivadavia or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
On our numbers Deportivo La Guaira have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independ. Rivadavia 53%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our predicted score is Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Independ. Rivadavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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