Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 2.88 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓41% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.36
Cusco vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin travel to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 21 May (03:00 WAT) to face Cusco. Cusco are 4th with 1 points from 6 games, while Independiente Medellin sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
Cusco's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Sport Boys 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Orsomarso 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 May 2026, finished Independiente Medellin 1–0 Cusco.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Cusco and 1.4 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 2.88 – 41% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cusco 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cusco34%fair 2.97 · @2.34
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin41%fair 2.46 · @2.88
2.70Expected goals
1.25Cusco xG
1.44Independiente Medellin xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Cusco 1.3 – 1.4 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
41%
2.46
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
What is the prediction for Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Cusco have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente Medellin 41%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Cusco vs Independiente Medellin (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
LDU de Quito2
Lanus0
Palmeiras0
Cerro Porteno1
Junior3
Sporting Cristal2
Deportivo La Guaira2
Independ. Rivadavia4