Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndepend. Rivadavia to win ✓66% · @1.35
Double chanceIndepend. Rivadavia or draw ✓83% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.11
Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo La Guaira travel to Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 30 April (23:00 WAT) to face Independ. Rivadavia. Independ. Rivadavia are 1st with 16 points from 6 games, while Deportivo La Guaira sit 4th on 3 points. A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independ. Rivadavia's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Banfield 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo La Guaira's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Portuguesa FC 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independ. Rivadavia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.5 for Deportivo La Guaira. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independ. Rivadavia66%fair 1.51 · @1.35
Draw17%fair 5.75 · @4.40
Deportivo La Guaira17%fair 6.03 · @10.00
2.06Expected goals
1.53Independ. Rivadavia xG
0.53Deportivo La Guaira xG
48%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Independ. Rivadavia 1.5 – 0.5 Deportivo La Guaira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independ. Rivadavia to win✓
66%
1.51
1.35
Double chance
Independ. Rivadavia or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independ. Rivadavia / FT Independ. Rivadavia✓
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.11
–
Form
Independ. Rivadavia – last 6
DWWWWW
20 Apr
@ Banfield
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Fluminense
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Bolívar
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Tigre
2–0
W
23 Mar
vs Rosario Central
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Gimnasia L.P.
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo La Guaira – last 6
DDWDDD
21 Apr
vs Portuguesa FC
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
10 Apr
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Fluminense
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Carabobo FC
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Academia Anzoátegui
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independ. Rivadavia and Deportivo La Guaira.
What is the prediction for Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
On our numbers Independ. Rivadavia have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Deportivo La Guaira 17%.
How many goals will there be in Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our predicted score is Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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