Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.45 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBolívar to win ✓47% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.19
Bolívar vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
Fluminense travel to Estadio Hernando Siles in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 30 April (23:00 WAT) to face Bolívar. Bolívar are 3rd with 5 points from 6 games, while Fluminense sit 2nd on 8 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bolívar's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Independiente Petrolero 1–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Fluminense's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Operario-PR 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Bolívar and 1.0 for Fluminense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 55% likely.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.45 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.33, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bolívar 1–0 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bolívar47%fair 2.15 · @1.97
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.65
Fluminense33%fair 3.01 · @3.45
2.17Expected goals
1.22Bolívar xG
0.95Fluminense xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Bolívar 1.2 – 1.0 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolívar to win✓
47%
2.15
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolívar / FT Bolívar✓
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.19
–
Form
Bolívar – last 6
LDLWLW
22 Apr
vs Independiente Petrolero
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Deportivo La Guaira
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ Independ. Rivadavia
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Real Oruro
5–2
W
5 Mar
@ Always Ready
2–3
L
26 Feb
vs Blooming
5–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
DLDDWL
24 Apr
@ Operario-PR
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Independ. Rivadavia
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bolívar and Fluminense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Bolívar vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Bolívar have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fluminense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Bolívar vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bolívar vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Bolívar 1–0 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Bolívar vs Fluminense?
Bolívar vs Fluminense (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Hernando Siles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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