Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.23
Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
Cerro Porteno host Palmeiras in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 30 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at General Pablo Rojas. Cerro Porteno are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 11 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerro Porteno's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palmeiras's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Jacuipense 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.6 for Cerro Porteno and 1.4 for Palmeiras. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cerro Porteno 0–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Porteno16%fair 6.27 · @4.50
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.25
Palmeiras59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
2.01Expected goals
0.58Cerro Porteno xG
1.43Palmeiras xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–214%
0–013%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Cerro Porteno 0.6 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✗
59%
1.70
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.23
–
Form
Cerro Porteno – last 6
DWDLWW
25 Apr
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
14 Apr
vs Junior
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Nacional Asuncion
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs 2 de Mayo
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Sportivo Luqueno
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWDWWW
23 Apr
vs Jacuipense
3–0
W
16 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Porteno and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Palmeiras or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Cerro Porteno have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palmeiras 59%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Cerro Porteno 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at General Pablo Rojas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barcelona SC1
U. Catolica2
Estudiantes L.P.1
Flamengo1
Universitario4
Club Nacional2
Bolívar2
Fluminense0
Independ. Rivadavia4
Deportivo La Guaira1