Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗58% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Santos vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Santos take on San Lorenzo on Wednesday 20 May, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos are 2nd with 7 points from 6 games, while San Lorenzo sit 3rd on 7 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santos's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Coritiba 0–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
San Lorenzo's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Deportivo Cuenca 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 April 2026, finished San Lorenzo 1–1 Santos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for Santos and 0.7 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 58%, draw 20%, San Lorenzo 22%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Santos 1–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos58%fair 1.74 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.45
San Lorenzo22%fair 4.50 · @4.45
2.05Expected goals
1.37Santos xG
0.68San Lorenzo xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
0–013%
2–012%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 0.7 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Santos vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Santos have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and San Lorenzo 22%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Santos vs San Lorenzo?
Santos vs San Lorenzo (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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