Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Olimpia to win @ 1.93 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultOlimpia to win ✓64% · @1.93
Double chanceOlimpia or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.57
Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama travel to Estadio Defensores del Chaco in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 20 May (23:00 WAT) to face Olimpia. Olimpia are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Vasco DA Gama sit 2nd on 10 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Olimpia's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Barracas Central 2–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Paysandu 2–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vasco DA Gama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 April 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 3–0 Olimpia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Olimpia and 0.6 for Vasco DA Gama. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Olimpia 64%, draw 21%, Vasco DA Gama 15%.
Safer route: Olimpia or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Olimpia to win at 1.93 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Olimpia or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Olimpia 1–0 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Olimpia64%fair 1.56 · @1.93
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.25
Vasco DA Gama15%fair 6.73 · @4.10
2.20Expected goals
1.61Olimpia xG
0.58Vasco DA Gama xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Olimpia 1.6 – 0.6 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Olimpia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Olimpia have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vasco DA Gama 15%.
How many goals will there be in Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Olimpia 1–0 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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