Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.74
Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Vasco DA Gama take on Olimpia on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio São Januário. Vasco DA Gama are 2nd with 10 points from 6 games, while Olimpia sit 1st on 13 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Paysandu 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Olimpia's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Libertad Asuncion 2–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.5 for Olimpia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 60%, draw 24%, Olimpia 17%.
Safer route: Vasco DA Gama or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vasco DA Gama or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Olimpia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama60%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.45
Olimpia17%fair 6.05 · @4.20
1.84Expected goals
1.33Vasco DA Gama xG
0.51Olimpia xG
42%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.3 – 0.5 Olimpia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✓
60%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.83 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✓
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.74
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WLDLDW
22 Apr
@ Paysandu
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Olimpia – last 6
LDWLWW
26 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
2–3
L
16 Apr
vs Barracas Central
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ A. Italiano
2–0
W
2 Apr
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs Sportivo Luqueno
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Olimpia.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Olimpia 17%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Olimpia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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