Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Cienciano to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCienciano to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceCienciano or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.26
Cienciano vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
Cienciano host Atletico-MG in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thursday 30 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Cienciano are 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, while Atletico-MG sit 1st on 10 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cienciano's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Atletico-MG's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Ceara 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Cienciano and 0.8 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Cienciano to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cienciano or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cienciano 1–0 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cienciano60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.40
Atletico-MG15%fair 6.63 · @4.00
2.56Expected goals
1.78Cienciano xG
0.78Atletico-MG xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Cienciano 1.8 – 0.8 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cienciano to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Cienciano or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Cienciano ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cienciano / FT Cienciano✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.26
–
Form
Cienciano – last 6
LWWDWW
23 Apr
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
17 Apr
vs Puerto Cabello
2–0
W
9 Apr
@ Juventud
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs ADT
3–2
W
21 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WWLLWW
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cienciano and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Cienciano or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Cienciano have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Cienciano 1–0 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
Cienciano vs Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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