Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
1
Value bet: Palestino to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGremio to win ✗41% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.31
Palestino vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to Municipal de La Cisterna in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thursday 30 April (01:30 WAT) to face Palestino. Palestino are 4th with 3 points from 6 games, while Gremio sit 2nd on 11 points.
Form guide
Palestino's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Concepción 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gremio's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Confiança 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Palestino and 1.0 for Gremio. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palestino 34%, draw 26%, Gremio 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Palestino to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palestino 0–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palestino34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.00
Gremio41%fair 2.45 · @2.35
1.81Expected goals
0.84Palestino xG
0.97Gremio xG
52%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
0–116%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Palestino 0.8 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✗
41%
2.45
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.31
–
Form
Palestino – last 6
LWLWDL
24 Apr
vs Concepción
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Colo Colo
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Atletico Torque
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Deportes Limache
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ U. Catolica
1–6
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WLWDLD
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Remo
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palestino and Gremio.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Palestino vs Gremio?
On our numbers Palestino have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gremio 41%.
How many goals will there be in Palestino vs Gremio?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palestino vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Palestino 0–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Palestino vs Gremio?
Palestino vs Gremio (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de La Cisterna.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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