The Copa Do Nordeste sees Ferroviario take on Retrô on Wednesday 15 April, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Presidente Vargas.
Form guide
Ferroviario's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Jacuipense 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Retrô's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Sport Recife 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ferroviario arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Ferroviario and 1.1 for Retrô. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ferroviario 1–1 Retrô. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviario44%fair 2.28 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.20
Retrô34%fair 2.92 · @2.90
2.49Expected goals
1.35Ferroviario xG
1.15Retrô xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ferroviario 1.3 – 1.1 Retrô expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviario to win✗
44%
2.28
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviario / FT Ferroviario✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.98
–
Form
Ferroviario – last 3
WLW
7 Apr
vs Jacuipense
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
26 Feb
vs Floresta
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Retrô – last 3
LWL
9 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–3
L
24 Mar
@ Imperatriz
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Uberlandia
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviario and Retrô.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviario vs Retrô?
On our numbers Ferroviario have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Retrô 34%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviario vs Retrô?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviario vs Retrô?
Our predicted score is Ferroviario 1–1 Retrô, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviario vs Retrô?
Ferroviario vs Retrô (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Presidente Vargas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil · Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ceara4
Jacuipense1
Fluminense PI0
CRB0
ASA1
Confiança1
Sousa2
Juazeirense2