Value bet: Confiança to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultASA to win41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.58
ASA vs Confiança preview and prediction
The match
Confiança travel to face ASA in the Copa Do Nordeste on Wednesday 15 April (23:30 WAT).
Form guide
ASA's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat CRB 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Confiança's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat AO Itabaiana 1–0 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for ASA and 1.1 for Confiança. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ASA 41%, draw 26%, Confiança 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Confiança to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: ASA 1–1 Confiança. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ASA41%fair 2.45 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.90
Confiança34%fair 2.98 · @3.35
2.39Expected goals
1.27ASA xG
1.12Confiança xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: ASA 1.3 – 1.1 Confiança expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ASA to win
41%
2.45
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.87
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ASA / FT ASA
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.58
–
Form
ASA – last 6
WLWWWL
9 Apr
vs CRB
2–0
W
2 Apr
vs CSA
2–3
L
24 Mar
vs Piauí
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Miguelense
6–0
W
2 Mar
@ Penedense
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Operario Ferroviario
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Confiança – last 5
WWLWL
9 Apr
@ AO Itabaiana
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Fluminense PI
2–0
W
26 Mar
@ Sousa
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Tombense
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs AO Itabaiana
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ASA and Confiança.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win ASA vs Confiança?
On our numbers ASA have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Confiança 34%.
How many goals will there be in ASA vs Confiança?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ASA vs Confiança?
Our predicted score is ASA 1–1 Confiança, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is ASA vs Confiança?
ASA vs Confiança (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil
Ceara4
Jacuipense1
Fluminense PI0
CRB0
Ferroviario1
Retrô1
Sousa2
Juazeirense2