Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
Progreso host Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura on Tuesday 31 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Parque Abraham Paladino. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Liverpool Montevideo sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Central Espanol 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Progreso and 1.4 for Liverpool Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Progreso 28%, draw 22%, Liverpool Montevideo 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Progreso 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso28%fair 3.54 · @3.60
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.25
Liverpool Montevideo50%fair 2.01 · @1.98
2.36Expected goals
0.96Progreso xG
1.40Liverpool Montevideo xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
0–29%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.0 – 1.4 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
50%
2.01
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.54
–
Form
Progreso – last 2
DL
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DDWWDD
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Progreso have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Liverpool Montevideo 50%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
