Danubio vs Defensor Sporting prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Defensor Sporting to win @ 2.72 – our chance 39% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✗39% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.39
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
Danubio host Defensor Sporting in the Primera División Apertura on Thursday 26 March, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Jardines Del Hipódromo. Danubio are 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Danubio's last 4: WDLW Most recently they beat Juventud 4–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Club Nacional 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Danubio and 1.2 for Defensor Sporting. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Defensor Sporting to win at 2.72 – 39% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Danubio 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio36%fair 2.74 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.10
Defensor Sporting39%fair 2.56 · @2.72
2.28Expected goals
1.11Danubio xG
1.17Defensor Sporting xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.2 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✗
39%
2.56
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
21%
4.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.39
–
Form
Danubio – last 4
WDLW
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
WDLLWW
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Danubio have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Defensor Sporting 39%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Jardines Del Hipódromo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
