Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓66% · @1.61
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.43
Boston River vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Boston River host Penarol in the Primera División Apertura on Thursday 26 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos. Boston River are 11th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Boston River's last 4: LWDL Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Penarol's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Cerro 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.5 for Boston River and 1.7 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boston River 12%, draw 23%, Penarol 66%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Boston River 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boston River12%fair 8.64 · @5.25
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.55
Penarol66%fair 1.52 · @1.61
2.21Expected goals
0.53Boston River xG
1.67Penarol xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–215%
0–011%
1–110%
0–39%
1–28%
From our goals model: Boston River 0.5 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
66%
1.52
1.61 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.43
–
Form
Boston River – last 4
LWDL
10 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
WWDWWL
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boston River and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Boston River vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Boston River vs Penarol?
On our numbers Boston River have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 66%.
How many goals will there be in Boston River vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boston River vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Boston River 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Boston River vs Penarol?
Boston River vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
