Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 1.82 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗63% · @1.82
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.60
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Progreso travel to Estadio Osvaldo Roberto in the Primera División Apertura on Thursday 26 March (17:00 WAT) to face Racing Montevideo. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Cerro 1–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Racing Montevideo and 0.7 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 63%, draw 24%, Progreso 13%.
Safer route: Racing Montevideo or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Racing Montevideo to win at 1.82 – 63% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo63%fair 1.60 · @1.82
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.30
Progreso13%fair 7.54 · @4.20
2.46Expected goals
1.77Racing Montevideo xG
0.69Progreso xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.8 – 0.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✗
63%
1.60
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Racing Montevideo ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.60
–
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 5
WLWWD
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Progreso 13%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
