Both teams scoreNot both teams to score63% · fair 1.58
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–020% · fair 4.89
Estonia vs Bulgaria preview and prediction
The match
Bulgaria travel to face Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November (18:00 WAT). Estonia are 2nd with 6 points from 4 games, while Bulgaria sit 3rd on 4 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estonia's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Iceland 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bulgaria's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Luxembourg 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Estonia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 September 2026, finished Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.9 for Estonia and 0.6 for Bulgaria. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estonia 47%, draw 24%, Bulgaria 29%.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 94% chance. Predicted score: Estonia 0–0 Bulgaria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estonia47%fair 2.14
Draw24%fair 4.17
Bulgaria29%fair 3.41
1.48Expected goals
0.90Estonia xG
0.58Bulgaria xG
37%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–023%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–15%
From our goals model: Estonia 0.9 – 0.6 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Estonia
Bulgaria
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-25%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
-44%
+4%
Our expected goals here
0.95
0.60
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
On our numbers Estonia have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bulgaria 29%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Our predicted score is Estonia 0–0 Bulgaria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Estonia vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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