Belgium host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT). Belgium are 3rd with 6 points from 4 games, while Italy sit 2nd on 7 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Belgium's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to France 1–4 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Italy's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Türkiye 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Italy arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 September 2026, finished Italy 0–2 Belgium.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Belgium and 1.5 for Italy. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Belgium 39%, draw 24%, Italy 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Prediction
Our prediction: Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Belgium 1–1 Italy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Belgium39%fair 2.56 · @2.18
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.76
Italy37%fair 2.72 · @2.78
2.99Expected goals
1.49Belgium xG
1.50Italy xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Belgium
Italy
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
+14%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.47
1.52
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
On our numbers Belgium have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Italy 37%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs Italy?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Belgium 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Belgium vs Italy?
Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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