Finland vs San Marino prediction & analysis
Finland or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.09
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Finland 2.8 – 0.7 San Marino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Finland are clear favourites at home with a 81% chance of winning, against 8% for San Marino.
Finland have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. San Marino have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.5 scored and 3.3 conceded. Finland come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.8 for Finland, 0.7 for San Marino). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 3–0 (11%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Finland have won 1, San Marino have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 7.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Finland or draw at a 92% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Finland to win | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Double chance | Finland or draw | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Finland ahead at half-time | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Finland / FT Finland | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 | 12% | 8.58 | – |
Form
Finland – last 6
| 6 Oct | @ Belarus | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Albania | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Belarus | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ San Marino | 7–0 | W |
| 5 Jun | @ Hungary | 1–2 | L |
| 31 May | @ Germany | 0–4 | L |
San Marino – last 6
| 6 Oct | @ Albania | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Belarus | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Albania | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Finland | 0–7 | L |
| 9 Jun | @ Azerbaijan | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Jun | vs Bangladesh | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Sep 2026 | San Marino v Finland | 0–7 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 4 | -15 | 0 |
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CzechiaFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Finland vs San Marino?
Our pick is Finland or draw with a 92% chance.
Who will win Finland vs San Marino?
On our numbers Finland have a 81% chance of winning, the draw 11% and San Marino 8%.
How many goals will there be in Finland vs San Marino?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Finland vs San Marino?
Finland vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.