Italy vs Belgium prediction & analysis
Italy to win
Fair pick · fair odds 1.88 · bookmaker 2.15 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Our analysis
Italy hold the edge on home soil with a 53% chance of winning, against 26% for Belgium.
Italy have taken 9 points from their last 3 matches (3W 0D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.0 per game. Belgium have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Italy come into this in clearly the better form.
Our pick is Italy to win at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.15 is better than our fair price of 1.88, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Italy to win ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
Form
Italy – last 3
| 7 Jun | @ Greece | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Jun | @ Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Northern Ireland | 2–0 | W |
Belgium – last 6
| 10 Jul | @ Spain | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Jul | @ USA | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Jul | vs Senegal | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Jun | @ New Zealand | 5–1 | W |
| 21 Jun | vs Iran | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Jun | vs Egypt | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy and Belgium.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 4 | -9 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Cyprus1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Italy vs Belgium?
Our pick is Italy to win with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Italy vs Belgium?
On our numbers Italy have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Belgium 26%.
When is Italy vs Belgium?
Italy vs Belgium (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.