Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: FK Tobol Kostanay to win @ 1.91 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Tobol Kostanay to win ✗64% · @1.91
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.38
Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay preview and prediction
The match
FK Tobol Kostanay travel to Turkestan Arena in the Premier League on Thursday 28 May (14:00 WAT) to face Atyrau. Atyrau are 13th with 30 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while FK Tobol Kostanay sit 7th on 41 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atyrau's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Zhetysu 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FK Tobol Kostanay's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Ordabasy 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Atyrau and 1.6 for FK Tobol Kostanay. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atyrau 15%, draw 21%, FK Tobol Kostanay 64%.
Safer route: FK Tobol Kostanay or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.75.
Value angle: FK Tobol Kostanay to win at 1.91 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Tobol Kostanay or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atyrau 0–1 FK Tobol Kostanay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atyrau15%fair 6.77 · @3.75
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.20
FK Tobol Kostanay64%fair 1.56 · @1.91
2.14Expected goals
0.56Atyrau xG
1.57FK Tobol Kostanay xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–215%
0–012%
1–110%
1–28%
0–38%
From our goals model: Atyrau 0.6 – 1.6 FK Tobol Kostanay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Tobol Kostanay to win✗
64%
1.56
1.91 ▲
Double chance
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Tobol Kostanay / FT FK Tobol Kostanay✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.38
–
Form
Atyrau – last 6
DDDWLL
23 May
@ Zhetysu
0–0
D
17 May
@ Aktobe
1–1
D
9 May
@ Okzhetpes
0–0
D
3 May
vs Altay
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs Zhetysu
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Kyzyl-Zhar
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6
LLLWWL
23 May
vs Ordabasy
0–3
L
17 May
@ Kaisar
1–2
L
3 May
@ Zhenys
0–1
L
29 Apr
@ FC Astana
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Kaspiy
2–1
W
19 Apr
@ Ulytau
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atyrau and FK Tobol Kostanay.
What is the prediction for Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our pick is FK Tobol Kostanay or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
On our numbers Atyrau have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FK Tobol Kostanay 64%.
How many goals will there be in Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our predicted score is Atyrau 0–1 FK Tobol Kostanay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Atyrau vs FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 28 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Turkestan Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
