Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.21
9/10Rating
1.21Odds
1
Value bet: FK Tobol Kostanay to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Tobol Kostanay to win59% · @1.85
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw82% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.60
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh preview and prediction
The match
FK Tobol Kostanay host Irtysh in the Premier League on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Centralnyj Stadion. FK Tobol Kostanay are 7th with 41 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Irtysh sit 12th on 32 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
FK Tobol Kostanay's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Zhenys 0–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Irtysh's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Kairat Almaty 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
FK Tobol Kostanay arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.8 for Irtysh. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Tobol Kostanay 59%, draw 23%, Irtysh 18%.
Safer route: FK Tobol Kostanay or draw (82%) at 1.21.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.72.
Value angle: FK Tobol Kostanay to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Tobol Kostanay or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Irtysh. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Tobol Kostanay59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.44
Irtysh18%fair 5.68 · @3.58
2.59Expected goals
1.76FK Tobol Kostanay xG
0.83Irtysh xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: FK Tobol Kostanay 1.8 – 0.8 Irtysh expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Tobol Kostanay to win
59%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
82%
1.21
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.77
1.72
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.86
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
FK Tobol Kostanay ahead at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Tobol Kostanay / FT FK Tobol Kostanay
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.60
–
Form
FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6
LWWLWL
3 May
@ Zhenys
0–1
L
29 Apr
@ FC Astana
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Kaspiy
2–1
W
19 Apr
@ Ulytau
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Ansat
8–0
W
4 Apr
@ Yelimay Semey
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Irtysh – last 6
LLLLWD
2 May
vs Kairat Almaty
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Kyzyl-Zhar
1–2
L
18 Apr
vs Zhetysu
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Okzhetpes
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Altay
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Kyzyl-Zhar
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Tobol Kostanay and Irtysh.
What is the prediction for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh?
Our pick is FK Tobol Kostanay or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh?
On our numbers FK Tobol Kostanay have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Irtysh 18%.
How many goals will there be in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh?
Our predicted score is FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Irtysh, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh?
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Irtysh (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Centralnyj Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
