Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Ituano to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultItuano to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceItuano or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.05
Ituano vs Figueirense preview and prediction
The match
Figueirense travel to face Ituano in the Serie C on Sunday 21 June (00:30 WAT). Ituano are 15th with 22 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Figueirense sit 11th on 28 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ituano's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with AO Itabaiana 2–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Figueirense's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Floresta 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ituano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Ituano and 0.7 for Figueirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Ituano to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ituano or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ituano 1–0 Figueirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ituano62%fair 1.60 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.90
Figueirense14%fair 7.33 · @3.60
2.55Expected goals
1.82Ituano xG
0.73Figueirense xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.8 – 0.7 Figueirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ituano to win✗
62%
1.60
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Ituano or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Ituano ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ituano / FT Ituano✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.05
–
Form
Ituano – last 6
DLWWWL
14 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
2–2
D
30 May
@ Caxias
1–2
L
26 May
vs Botafogo PB
1–0
W
17 May
@ Guarani Campinas
3–1
W
10 May
vs Confiança
1–0
W
5 May
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Figueirense – last 6
WWDLLL
14 Jun
@ Floresta
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs Paysandu
2–1
W
24 May
@ Confiança
0–0
D
16 May
vs AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
5 May
vs Barra
0–3
L
14 Apr
vs Maringá
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ituano and Figueirense.
Our pick is Ituano or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ituano vs Figueirense?
On our numbers Ituano have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Figueirense 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Figueirense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Figueirense?
Our predicted score is Ituano 1–0 Figueirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Figueirense?
Ituano vs Figueirense (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
