Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.46
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees São Bernardo take on Vila Nova on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio. São Bernardo are 11th with 52 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Criciuma 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Vila Nova's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Novorizontino 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 July 2026, finished Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for São Bernardo and 1.3 for Vila Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 33%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Vila Nova to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo33%fair 3.05 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.90
Vila Nova44%fair 2.30 · @2.50
2.41Expected goals
1.09São Bernardo xG
1.32Vila Nova xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.1 – 1.3 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 44%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
