Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Vila Nova vs Goias preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Vila Nova take on Goias on Thursday 10 September, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT). Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Goias sit 7th on 58 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Athletic Club 0–5 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goias's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Fortaleza EC 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.4 for Vila Nova and 0.9 for Goias. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 49%, draw 22%, Goias 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 55% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Goias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova49%fair 2.03 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Goias28%fair 3.55 · @3.95
2.30Expected goals
1.37Vila Nova xG
0.93Goias xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.4 – 0.9 Goias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
49%
2.03
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.29
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
LWDWWL
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–5
L
30 Aug
vs Ceara
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Operario-PR
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
6–0
W
15 Aug
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–0
W
8 Aug
vs Sport Recife
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Goias – last 6
LWDLLW
5 Sep
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
28 Aug
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Cuiaba
1–1
D
19 Aug
vs Juventude
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
10 Aug
vs Londrina
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Goias.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Goias?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Goias 28%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Goias?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Goias?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Goias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Goias?
Vila Nova vs Goias (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
