Serie B · BrazilAmerica Mineiro vs Nautico Recife prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 2.74 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: America Mineiro 1.2 – 1.3 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Nautico Recife shade it despite being away from home – 42% to win, against 34% for America Mineiro.
America Mineiro have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.3 per game. Nautico Recife have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. Nautico Recife come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for America Mineiro, 1.3 for Nautico Recife). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Nautico Recife to win at 2.74 is our value angle (42% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nautico Recife to win ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | 2.74 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nautico Recife / FT Nautico Recife ✗ | 23% | 4.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.16 | – |
Form
America Mineiro – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ CRB | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | @ Sport Recife | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | @ Novorizontino | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Athletic Club | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Botafogo SP | 1–2 | L |
Nautico Recife – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Botafogo SP | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Athletic Club | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ São Bernardo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Aug | vs Ceara | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Ponte Preta | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America Mineiro and Nautico Recife.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nautico Recife 42%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.