Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cuiaba to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCuiaba to win ✓65% · @1.90
Double chanceCuiaba or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.04
Cuiaba vs Athletic Club preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Cuiaba take on Athletic Club on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Arena Pantanal. Cuiaba are 13th with 47 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Athletic Club sit 14th on 47 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cuiaba's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Criciuma 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Athletic Club's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Vila Nova 5–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Cuiaba and 0.5 for Athletic Club. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cuiaba 65%, draw 22%, Athletic Club 14%.
Safer route: Cuiaba or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Cuiaba to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cuiaba or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cuiaba 1–0 Athletic Club. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cuiaba65%fair 1.55 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.15
Athletic Club14%fair 7.37 · @4.45
2.05Expected goals
1.55Cuiaba xG
0.51Athletic Club xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 1.5 – 0.5 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cuiaba to win✓
65%
1.55
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Cuiaba or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cuiaba / FT Cuiaba✓
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.04
–
Form
Cuiaba – last 6
LWDWWD
4 Sep
@ Criciuma
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Botafogo SP
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Goias
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Operario-PR
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Ceara
3–1
W
9 Aug
vs Fortaleza EC
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 6
WLLLWW
5 Sep
vs Vila Nova
5–0
W
29 Aug
@ Nautico Recife
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs Novorizontino
1–4
L
20 Aug
vs CRB
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ America Mineiro
3–1
W
9 Aug
vs Criciuma
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Cuiaba vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Cuiaba or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Club 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 1–0 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Athletic Club?
Cuiaba vs Athletic Club (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
