Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCeara to win ✓38% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.85
Ceara vs Sport Recife preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife travel to Estadio Castelão in the Serie B on Saturday 5 September (22:30 WAT) to face Ceara. Ceara are 16th with 43 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Sport Recife sit 9th on 55 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ceara's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Vila Nova 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sport Recife's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Novorizontino 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Ceara and 1.2 for Sport Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ceara 38%, draw 24%, Sport Recife 37%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Sport Recife to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ceara 1–1 Sport Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ceara38%fair 2.60 · @2.24
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.15
Sport Recife37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
2.35Expected goals
1.19Ceara xG
1.16Sport Recife xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ceara 1.2 – 1.2 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ceara to win✓
38%
2.60
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ceara / FT Ceara✗
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.85
–
Form
Ceara – last 6
LWLLWW
30 Aug
@ Vila Nova
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
19 Aug
@ Nautico Recife
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs Cuiaba
1–3
L
8 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ São Bernardo
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sport Recife – last 6
LWLWWD
29 Aug
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs America Mineiro
3–0
W
19 Aug
@ Avai
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Vila Nova
1–0
W
27 Jul
vs Cuiaba
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ceara and Sport Recife.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ceara vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Ceara have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sport Recife 37%.
How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is Ceara 1–1 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Ceara vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Castelão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
