Serie B · Brazil · Estadio Joaquim PortugalAthletic Club vs Vila Nova prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.88 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.1 – 1.2 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vila Nova shade it despite being away from home – 41% to win, against 33% for Athletic Club.
Athletic Club have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Vila Nova have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.1 for Athletic Club, 1.2 for Vila Nova). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Athletic Club have won 0, Vila Nova have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, Vila Nova to win at 2.88 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vila Nova to win ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | 2.88 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova ✗ | 23% | 4.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.95 | – |
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Nautico Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | vs Novorizontino | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Aug | vs CRB | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ America Mineiro | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Criciuma | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Jul | @ Ponte Preta | 1–1 | D |
Vila Nova – last 6
| 30 Aug | vs Ceara | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Operario-PR | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Aug | vs Ponte Preta | 6–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Atletico Goianiense | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Sport Recife | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Jul | @ CRB | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 4 May 2026 | Vila Nova v Athletic Club | 1–1 |
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 41%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Joaquim Portugal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.