Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ceara to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗40% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.62
São Bernardo vs Ceara preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees São Bernardo take on Ceara on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio. São Bernardo are 11th with 52 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Ceara sit 16th on 43 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Athletic Club 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ceara's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to CRB 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for São Bernardo and 1.0 for Ceara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 40%, draw 27%, Ceara 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ceara to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo40%fair 2.50 · @2.38
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.82
Ceara33%fair 3.03 · @3.40
2.18Expected goals
1.16São Bernardo xG
1.02Ceara xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.2 – 1.0 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
40%
2.50
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.62
–
Form
São Bernardo – last 6
LDDLLL
23 Jul
@ Athletic Club
1–2
L
17 Jul
vs Avai
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–2
D
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 6
LDDLLL
22 Jul
vs CRB
0–1
L
17 Jul
@ America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Jul
vs Athletic Club
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Goias
0–2
L
28 Jun
@ Juventude
0–2
L
20 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Ceara.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Ceara?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ceara 33%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Ceara?
São Bernardo vs Ceara (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
