Value bet: Criciuma to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCriciuma to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceCriciuma or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.86
Criciuma vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Criciuma take on Nautico Recife on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Criciuma are 4th with 62 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Criciuma's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Novorizontino 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nautico Recife's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Londrina 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Criciuma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Criciuma and 0.6 for Nautico Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Criciuma to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Criciuma 1–0 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Criciuma65%fair 1.55 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.45
Nautico Recife11%fair 9.23 · @5.00
2.32Expected goals
1.74Criciuma xG
0.58Nautico Recife xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–09%
From our goals model: Criciuma 1.7 – 0.6 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Criciuma to win✗
65%
1.55
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Criciuma or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Criciuma ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Criciuma / FT Criciuma✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.86
–
Form
Criciuma – last 6
WWWWWW
21 Jul
@ Novorizontino
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs Vila Nova
2–0
W
9 Jul
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Sport Recife
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
24 Jun
@ America Mineiro
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
WLLDLL
23 Jul
vs Londrina
2–1
W
17 Jul
@ CRB
1–2
L
12 Jul
@ Avai
0–2
L
6 Jul
vs Juventude
0–0
D
28 Jun
vs Goias
0–1
L
20 Jun
@ Vila Nova
3–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Criciuma and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Criciuma have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nautico Recife 11%.
How many goals will there be in Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Criciuma 1–0 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?
Criciuma vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
