Value bet: Iwaki to win @ 2.65 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIwaki to win ✗42% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki preview and prediction
The match
Iwaki travel to NACK5 Stadium Omiya in the J2 League on Wednesday 6 May (06:00 WAT) to face Omiya Ardija. Omiya Ardija are 5th with 30 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Iwaki sit 8th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Omiya Ardija's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Fukushima United 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Iwaki's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to FC Gifu 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Iwaki arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Omiya Ardija and 1.5 for Iwaki. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Iwaki to win at 2.65 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Omiya Ardija 1–1 Iwaki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Omiya Ardija35%fair 2.84 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.35
Iwaki42%fair 2.39 · @2.65
2.93Expected goals
1.39Omiya Ardija xG
1.54Iwaki xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Omiya Ardija 1.4 – 1.5 Iwaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Iwaki to win✗
42%
2.39
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Iwaki / FT Iwaki✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.37
–
Form
Omiya Ardija – last 6
WLLLWL
3 May
@ Fukushima United
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs Ventforet Kofu
1–2
L
18 Apr
vs Jubilo Iwata
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Matsumoto Yamaga
1–4
L
4 Apr
vs FC Gifu
3–0
W
28 Mar
@ Ventforet Kofu
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Iwaki – last 6
LLWWWW
29 Apr
vs FC Gifu
0–1
L
25 Apr
@ Consadole Sapporo
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Parceiro Nagano
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Fukushima United
3–2
W
29 Mar
vs Jubilo Iwata
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Parceiro Nagano
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Omiya Ardija and Iwaki.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?
On our numbers Omiya Ardija have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iwaki 42%.
How many goals will there be in Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?
Our predicted score is Omiya Ardija 1–1 Iwaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?
Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki (J2 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at NACK5 Stadium Omiya.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tochigi SC1
Thespakusatsu Gunma2
Parceiro Nagano0
Fukushima United1
Nara Club1
Osaka3