Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 6 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultMontedio Yamagata to win ✗61% · @1.80

Double chanceMontedio Yamagata or draw ✗87% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.37

Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma preview and prediction

The match

The J2 League sees Montedio Yamagata take on Thespakusatsu Gunma on Wednesday 6 May, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata.

Form guide

Montedio Yamagata's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Blaublitz Akita 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Thespakusatsu Gunma's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Vanraure Hachinohe 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Montedio Yamagata and 0.8 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Montedio Yamagata 61%, draw 25%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 13%.
Safer route: Montedio Yamagata or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Montedio Yamagata to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Montedio Yamagata or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Montedio Yamagata 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Montedio Yamagata61%fair 1.63 · @1.80

Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.45

Thespakusatsu Gunma13%fair 7.59 · @3.90

2.80Expected goals

1.96Montedio Yamagata xG

0.84Thespakusatsu Gunma xG

58%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–012%

2–012%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

3–16%

From our goals model: Montedio Yamagata 2.0 – 0.8 Thespakusatsu Gunma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Montedio Yamagata to win ✗	61%	1.63	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Montedio Yamagata or draw ✗	87%	1.15	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	58%	1.72	1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.93	1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.33
Half-time result	Montedio Yamagata ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.19	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Montedio Yamagata / FT Montedio Yamagata ✗	41%	2.47	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	12%	8.37	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Montedio Yamagata to win ✗

61%

1.63

1.80 ▲

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw ✗

87%

1.15

1.20

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

58%

1.72

1.73

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

75%

1.34

1.28

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals ✓

52%

1.93

1.85

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✓

70%

1.43

1.33

Half-time result

Montedio Yamagata ahead at half-time ✗

46%

2.19

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Montedio Yamagata / FT Montedio Yamagata ✗

41%

2.47

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–0 ✗

12%

8.37

–

Form

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Montedio Yamagata and Thespakusatsu Gunma.

J2 League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

Our pick is Montedio Yamagata or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

On our numbers Montedio Yamagata have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 13%.

How many goals will there be in Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

Our predicted score is Montedio Yamagata 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

Montedio Yamagata vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (J2 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

29 Apr	@ Blaublitz Akita	0–2	L
25 Apr	@ Vegalta Sendai	0–1	L
19 Apr	vs Vanraure Hachinohe	1–0	W
12 Apr	vs Yokohama FC	1–0	W
5 Apr	@ Vanraure Hachinohe	2–0	W
29 Mar	vs Tochigi City	1–2	L

3 May	@ Vanraure Hachinohe	1–0	W
29 Apr	vs Vegalta Sendai	1–3	L
25 Apr	vs Yokohama FC	3–1	W
18 Apr	@ Shonan Bellmare	2–1	W
12 Apr	@ Tochigi SC	1–5	L
28 Mar	vs Tochigi SC	1–3	L

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes