Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 5 Apr 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultSagan Tosu to win ✗63% · @1.80

Double chanceSagan Tosu or draw ✗86% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.82

Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita preview and prediction

The match

Sagan Tosu host Oita Trinita in the J2 League on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 06:00 (WAT) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium. Sagan Tosu are 13th with 20 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Oita Trinita sit 11th on 22 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.

Form guide

Sagan Tosu's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Gainare Tottori 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Oita Trinita's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Renofa Yamaguchi 1–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.

Sagan Tosu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Sagan Tosu and 0.7 for Oita Trinita. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Sagan Tosu 63%, draw 23%, Oita Trinita 14%.
Safer route: Sagan Tosu or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Sagan Tosu to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Sagan Tosu or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sagan Tosu 1–0 Oita Trinita. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Sagan Tosu63%fair 1.59 · @1.80

Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.30

Oita Trinita14%fair 7.11 · @3.70

2.50Expected goals

1.79Sagan Tosu xG

0.71Oita Trinita xG

47%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–015%

2–013%

1–110%

2–19%

0–08%

3–08%

From our goals model: Sagan Tosu 1.8 – 0.7 Oita Trinita expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sagan Tosu to win ✗	63%	1.59	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Sagan Tosu or draw ✗	86%	1.16	1.22
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	53%	1.88	1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.84	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Half-time result	Sagan Tosu ahead at half-time ✗	44%	2.26	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu ✗	40%	2.52	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	15%	6.82	–

Form

Sagan Tosu – last 6

WWWLLL

29 Mar	@ Gainare Tottori	2–0	W
22 Mar	@ Biwako Shiga	2–0	W
14 Mar	vs Kitakyushu	1–0	W
7 Mar	@ Renofa Yamaguchi	0–2	L
28 Feb	vs Kagoshima United	0–1	L
21 Feb	@ Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1–2	L

1.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Oita Trinita – last 6

LLLLWW

29 Mar	@ Renofa Yamaguchi	1–3	L
21 Mar	vs FC Ryukyu	2–3	L
14 Mar	@ Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0–1	L
1 Mar	@ Roasso Kumamoto	1–3	L
25 Feb	vs Biwako Shiga	2–0	W
22 Feb	vs Gainare Tottori	2–0	W

1.3Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita?

Our pick is Sagan Tosu or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita?

On our numbers Sagan Tosu have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Oita Trinita 14%.

How many goals will there be in Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita?

Our predicted score is Sagan Tosu 1–0 Oita Trinita, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita?

Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes