Value bet: Iwaki to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIwaki to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki preview and prediction
The match
Matsumoto Yamaga host Iwaki in the J2 League on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 06:00 (WAT) at Sunpro Alwin.
Form guide
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Fukushima United 3–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Iwaki's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Jubilo Iwata 1–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.8 for Iwaki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Iwaki to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Iwaki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matsumoto Yamaga25%fair 4.06 · @3.55
Draw15%fair 6.87 · @3.60
Iwaki61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
2.75Expected goals
0.97Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.78Iwaki xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–06%
1–06%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.0 – 1.8 Iwaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Iwaki to win✗
61%
1.64
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Iwaki ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Iwaki / FT Iwaki✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.80
–
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
WWWLWL
29 Mar
@ Fukushima United
3–1
W
14 Mar
@ Parceiro Nagano
5–0
W
7 Mar
vs Consadole Sapporo
3–0
W
28 Feb
@ Ventforet Kofu
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Jubilo Iwata
2–1
W
14 Feb
@ Fujieda MYFC
0–2
L
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Iwaki – last 5
WWWLW
29 Mar
vs Jubilo Iwata
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Parceiro Nagano
3–1
W
14 Mar
@ Ventforet Kofu
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Fujieda MYFC
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Fukushima United
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Iwaki.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Iwaki 61%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Iwaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwaki (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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