Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Borussia Dortmund to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✓40% · @2.16
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund preview and prediction
The match
Atalanta host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 25 February, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at New Balance Arena.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 February 2026, finished Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Atalanta.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Atalanta and 1.6 for Borussia Dortmund. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations.
Value angle: Borussia Dortmund to win at 2.94 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Atalanta 1–1 Borussia Dortmund. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta40%fair 2.52 · @2.16
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.75
Borussia Dortmund39%fair 2.57 · @2.94
3.15Expected goals
1.58Atalanta xG
1.57Borussia Dortmund xG
66%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–27%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.6 – 1.6 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Borussia Dortmund 39%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–1 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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