Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Benfica to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.53
Benfica vs Real Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Real Madrid travel to Estádio da Luz in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 17 February (21:00 WAT) to face Benfica.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Benfica and 1.5 for Real Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 37%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Benfica to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Benfica 1–1 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica37%fair 2.74 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.55
Real Madrid41%fair 2.44 · @2.15
2.97Expected goals
1.43Benfica xG
1.53Real Madrid xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Benfica 1.4 – 1.5 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
41%
2.44
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.53
–
Form
Benfica – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Real Madrid
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Benfica vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Benfica have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 41%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Benfica 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Benfica vs Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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