Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultÁguia de Marabá to win ✓60% · @1.38
Double chanceÁguia de Marabá or draw ✓84% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.94
Águia de Marabá vs Independência preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Brasil sees Águia de Marabá take on Independência on Thursday 26 February, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Águia de Marabá and 1.0 for Independência. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Águia de Marabá 60%, draw 24%, Independência 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 55% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Águia de Marabá 1–1 Independência. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Águia de Marabá60%fair 1.68 · @1.38
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @4.20
Independência16%fair 6.11 · @7.80
2.72Expected goals
1.70Águia de Marabá xG
1.02Independência xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Águia de Marabá 1.7 – 1.0 Independência expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Águia de Marabá to win✓
60%
1.68
1.38
Double chance
Águia de Marabá or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Águia de Marabá / FT Águia de Marabá✓
33%
3.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.94
–
Form
Águia de Marabá – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Cametá
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Independência
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Águia de Marabá and Independência.
What is the prediction for Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
On our numbers Águia de Marabá have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independência 16%.
How many goals will there be in Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Our predicted score is Águia de Marabá 1–1 Independência, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Águia de Marabá vs Independência (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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