Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Paredes to win @ 2.95 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAD Marco 09 to win39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.77
Paredes vs AD Marco 09 preview and prediction
The match
AD Marco 09 travel to Municipal das Laranjeiras in the Liga 3 on Sunday 3 May (16:30 WAT) to face Paredes. Paredes are 1st with 22 points from 9 games (top of the table), while AD Marco 09 sit 3rd on 14 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Paredes's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Fafe 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
AD Marco 09's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Fafe 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 February 2026, finished AD Marco 09 0–2 Paredes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Paredes and 1.1 for AD Marco 09. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paredes 37%, draw 24%, AD Marco 09 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Paredes to win at 2.95 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Paredes 1–1 AD Marco 09. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paredes37%fair 2.72 · @2.95
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
AD Marco 0939%fair 2.57 · @2.30
2.13Expected goals
1.05Paredes xG
1.09AD Marco 09 xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.0 – 1.1 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Paredes have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AD Marco 09 39%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Paredes 1–1 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs AD Marco 09?
Paredes vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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