Value bet: Mafra to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuimaraes B to win ✗42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.79
Guimaraes B vs Mafra preview and prediction
The match
Guimaraes B host Mafra in the Liga 3 on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Academia Vitoria SC. Guimaraes B are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Mafra sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guimaraes B's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with União Santarém 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Mafra's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Amarante 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Guimaraes B arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Mafra 1–2 Guimaraes B.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Guimaraes B and 1.1 for Mafra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guimaraes B 42%, draw 24%, Mafra 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Mafra to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Guimaraes B 1–1 Mafra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guimaraes B42%fair 2.41 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Mafra34%fair 2.90 · @3.25
2.42Expected goals
1.29Guimaraes B xG
1.14Mafra xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Guimaraes B 1.3 – 1.1 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Guimaraes B vs Mafra?
On our numbers Guimaraes B have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mafra 34%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes B vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes B vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes B 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes B vs Mafra?
Guimaraes B vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Academia Vitoria SC.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
SC Braga B
Sanjoanense
Academica