The Liga 3 sees Academica take on Varzim on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Academica's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with União Santarém 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Academica and 0.8 for Varzim. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Academica 60%, draw 19%, Varzim 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Academica 1–0 Varzim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Academica60%fair 1.67 · @1.60
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.50
Varzim21%fair 4.80 · @5.25
2.49Expected goals
1.67Academica xG
0.82Varzim xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Academica 1.7 – 0.8 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win
60%
1.67
1.60
Double chance
Either team to win
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
14%
7.25
–
Form
Academica – last 3
DLD
26 Apr
@ União Santarém
1–1
D
4 Apr
@ Guimaraes B
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Amarante
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 2
LL
11 Apr
vs Mafra
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Academica and Varzim.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Academica vs Varzim?
On our numbers Academica have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Varzim 21%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is Academica 1–0 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Varzim?
Academica vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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