Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.30 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCienciano to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.49
Cienciano vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima travel to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in the Primera División on Saturday 16 May (23:45 WAT) to face Cienciano. Cienciano are 12th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cienciano's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Puerto Cabello 0–3 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alianza Lima's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Sporting Cristal 1–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Cienciano and 1.3 for Alianza Lima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cienciano 42%, draw 24%, Alianza Lima 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Alianza Lima to win at 3.30 – 35% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Cienciano 1–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cienciano42%fair 2.41 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Alianza Lima35%fair 2.89 · @3.30
2.70Expected goals
1.43Cienciano xG
1.27Alianza Lima xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cienciano 1.4 – 1.3 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cienciano to win✗
42%
2.41
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cienciano / FT Cienciano✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.49
–
Form
Cienciano – last 6
LWWLWW
6 May
@ Puerto Cabello
0–3
L
2 May
vs Comerciantes Unidos
1–0
W
30 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
17 Apr
vs Puerto Cabello
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 6
DWWWLW
10 May
vs Sporting Cristal
1–1
D
3 May
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cienciano and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Cienciano have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 35%.
How many goals will there be in Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Cienciano 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Cienciano vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
