Value bet: Universitario to win @ 3.05 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversitario to win ✗39% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.35
FBC Melgar vs Universitario preview and prediction
The match
Universitario travel to Estadio de la UNSA in the Primera División on Sunday 19 April (23:15 WAT) to face FBC Melgar. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Universitario sit 3rd on 32 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Sport Boys 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Universitario's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Coquimbo Unido 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Universitario arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for FBC Melgar and 1.3 for Universitario. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Universitario to win at 3.05 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1–1 Universitario. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar37%fair 2.74 · @2.34
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Universitario39%fair 2.55 · @3.05
2.47Expected goals
1.21FBC Melgar xG
1.26Universitario xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.2 – 1.3 Universitario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universitario to win✗
39%
2.55
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universitario / FT Universitario✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.35
–
Form
FBC Melgar – last 6
WDDLLW
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Universitario – last 6
LDWWWW
15 Apr
vs Coquimbo Unido
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Alianza Lima
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Universitario.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Universitario?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Universitario?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Universitario 39%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Universitario?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Universitario?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–1 Universitario, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Universitario?
FBC Melgar vs Universitario (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
