Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗67% · @1.36
Double chanceFBC Melgar or draw ✓85% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.02
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Grau travel to Estadio de la UNSA in the Primera División on Sunday 15 March (19:15 WAT) to face FBC Melgar. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Atletico Grau sit 11th on 21 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Alianza Lima 1–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Atletico Grau's last 4: WLLL Most recently they beat FC Cajamarca 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for FBC Melgar and 0.7 for Atletico Grau. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 52% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FBC Melgar to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1–0 Atletico Grau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar67%fair 1.50 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.40 · @4.00
Atletico Grau15%fair 6.85 · @8.50
2.58Expected goals
1.88FBC Melgar xG
0.70Atletico Grau xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.7 Atletico Grau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✗
67%
1.50
1.36
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.02
–
Form
FBC Melgar – last 3
LLW
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atletico Grau – last 4
WLLL
6 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–2
L
14 Feb
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Atletico Grau.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
Our pick is FBC Melgar to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atletico Grau 15%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–0 Atletico Grau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
