Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Garcilaso host Alianza Lima in the Primera División on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportivo Garcilaso's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Cusco 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Alianza Lima's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat FBC Melgar 3–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alianza Lima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.8 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.2 for Alianza Lima. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Garcilaso 28%, draw 23%, Alianza Lima 48%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Alianza Lima to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Garcilaso28%fair 3.54 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Alianza Lima48%fair 2.06 · @2.30
2.00Expected goals
0.81Deportivo Garcilaso xG
1.19Alianza Lima xG
43%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–011%
0–210%
1–28%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✗
48%
2.06
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.19
–
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 4
LLLL
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 3
WWD
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Garcilaso and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima 48%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
