Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.36
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 57% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +85%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw57% · @3.25
Double chanceJapan or draw82% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–113% · fair 7.91
Scotland vs Japan preview and prediction
The match
Scotland host Japan in the Friendlies on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Hampden Park.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Scotland and 1.3 for Japan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Scotland 18%, draw 57%, Japan 25%.
Safer route: Japan or draw (82%) at 1.36.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Draw at 3.25 – 57% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Japan or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Scotland 1–1 Japan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Scotland18%fair 5.48 · @3.00
Draw57%fair 1.76 · @3.25
Japan25%fair 4.03 · @2.32
2.55Expected goals
1.21Scotland xG
1.35Japan xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Scotland 1.2 – 1.3 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw
57%
1.76
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Japan or draw
82%
1.22
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan / FT Japan
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1
13%
7.91
–
Form
Scotland
No recent results on record.
Japan
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Scotland and Japan.
Our pick is Japan or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Scotland vs Japan?
On our numbers Scotland have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 57% and Japan 25%.
How many goals will there be in Scotland vs Japan?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Japan?
Our predicted score is Scotland 1–1 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Scotland vs Japan?
Scotland vs Japan (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Hampden Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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