Value bet: Kyoto Sanga to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.17
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga preview and prediction
The match
Nagoya Grampus host Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 08:00 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Nagoya Grampus are 3rd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Kyoto Sanga sit 8th on 23 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Nagoya Grampus's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Gamba Osaka 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Kyoto Sanga's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Nagoya Grampus arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.3 for Kyoto Sanga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nagoya Grampus 44%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Kyoto Sanga to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Kyoto Sanga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nagoya Grampus44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.40
Kyoto Sanga35%fair 2.88 · @3.40
2.86Expected goals
1.54Nagoya Grampus xG
1.32Kyoto Sanga xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.5 – 1.3 Kyoto Sanga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nagoya Grampus to win✓
44%
2.26
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nagoya Grampus / FT Nagoya Grampus✓
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.17
–
Form
Nagoya Grampus – last 6
WWWWWL
6 May
vs Gamba Osaka
2–1
W
3 May
@ V-varen Nagasaki
2–1
W
25 Apr
@ Shimizu S-pulse
2–0
W
4 Apr
vs Cerezo Osaka
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Kyoto Sanga – last 6
LLWLWL
2 May
vs Shimizu S-pulse
1–2
L
18 Apr
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–3
L
11 Apr
vs Fagiano Okayama
5–1
W
4 Apr
@ Gamba Osaka
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ V-varen Nagasaki
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Cerezo Osaka
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kyoto Sanga 35%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Kyoto Sanga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga?
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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