Value bet: Avispa Fukuoka to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultShimizu S-pulse to win ✗46% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.28
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Shimizu S-pulse take on Avispa Fukuoka on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Shimizu S-pulse are 7th with 24 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Avispa Fukuoka sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shimizu S-pulse's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Kyoto Sanga 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Avispa Fukuoka's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Fagiano Okayama 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.2 for Avispa Fukuoka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Avispa Fukuoka to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shimizu S-pulse46%fair 2.19 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.20
Avispa Fukuoka32%fair 3.13 · @3.50
2.60Expected goals
1.45Shimizu S-pulse xG
1.15Avispa Fukuoka xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.4 – 1.2 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shimizu S-pulse to win✗
46%
2.19
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shimizu S-pulse / FT Shimizu S-pulse✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.28
–
Form
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
WLLWLW
2 May
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
25 Apr
vs Nagoya Grampus
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LWWWLL
25 Apr
@ Fagiano Okayama
0–2
L
22 Apr
@ Gamba Osaka
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs Nagoya Grampus
1–5
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Avispa Fukuoka 32%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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