V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse preview and prediction
The match
V-varen Nagasaki host Shimizu S-pulse in the J1 League on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 05:00 (WAT) at Peace Stadium. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Shimizu S-pulse sit 7th on 24 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Fagiano Okayama 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shimizu S-pulse's last 4: LWWD Most recently they lost to Vissel Kobe 0–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.3 for Shimizu S-pulse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki38%fair 2.60 · @2.65
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Shimizu S-pulse38%fair 2.65 · @2.55
2.60Expected goals
1.31V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.29Shimizu S-pulse xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.3 – 1.3 Shimizu S-pulse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
V-varen Nagasaki to win✗
38%
2.60
2.65
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT V-varen Nagasaki / FT V-varen Nagasaki✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.30
–
Form
V-varen Nagasaki – last 6
WLWLWW
21 Mar
@ Fagiano Okayama
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Avispa Fukuoka
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ Gamba Osaka
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Cerezo Osaka
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Nagoya Grampus
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Shimizu S-pulse – last 4
LWWD
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Vissel Kobe
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between V-varen Nagasaki and Shimizu S-pulse.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Shimizu S-pulse 38%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?
V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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