Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees V-varen Nagasaki take on Cerezo Osaka on Saturday 28 February, kicking off at 09:00 (WAT) at Peace Stadium. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Cerezo Osaka sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.4 for Cerezo Osaka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Cerezo Osaka to win at 2.60 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki34%fair 2.91 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.35
Cerezo Osaka42%fair 2.39 · @2.60
2.73Expected goals
1.28V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.44Cerezo Osaka xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.3 – 1.4 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✗
42%
2.39
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Form
V-varen Nagasaki – last 2
WL
21 Feb
@ Nagoya Grampus
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 2
LW
22 Feb
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerezo Osaka 42%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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